Self-tuning paper-trade engine for Polymarket BTC binary markets.
Built on Cloud Functions, Firestore, and the Polymarket CLOB.
Live · pulled from adaptive_metrics
Each panel below is a live page after you authenticate.
Indicator-based directional signals, source winrate, recent feed.
BTC 5-min decision engine — confluence + micro + features composite.
Paper-trade ground for 5 plans in parallel. Per-strategy leaderboard.
Real-USDC routing on Polymarket CLOB. PnL chart, kill switch.
Venue-neutral signal page. TradingView chart with trade overlays.
Rolling-50 metrics. Strategy weights, confidence calibration.
Plan tuning. Edge / confidence / TP / SL / interval gates.
Cloud Functions cron pipelines feed Firestore; engine reads back via 30s lazy cache.
Klines, orderbook, market list, Chainlink oracle
btc5mEngine composes confluence + micro + features into directional decisions
Rolling-50 stats produce strategy weights + confidence calibration
Polymarket CLOB orders, real USDC routing, paper sim
Where we've been, where we are, where we're heading.
Project bootstrap. Engine prototype. Polymarket CLOB integration via proxy-wallet auth.
Real-USDC routing on signal path. Kill switch + dry-run. Order jitter to avoid round-number fingerprint. Layout polish.
CLOB error handling. Cache coherence across instances. Real-CLOB SELL on TP close (replaced paper-only TP). Fee + jitter calibration. Pagination.
Strategy tuning script + auto-disable gates. Signal health detector with 4-level alerting. Multi-TF pipeline. External-strategy leaderboard. Indicator-source auto-detection.
Per-plan interval picker. Stop-loss + force-exit + 15s polling. Predictions schema refactor (venue-neutral). Trading-style presets (baseline / ohanism). Polymarket WS + TWAP exit.
Venue-neutral signal page with TradingView Lightweight Charts. Trade overlays. Foundation for future cross-venue broadcasting.
Replaced Binance fallback with Chainlink-only outcome lookup. Eliminated fake-WIN bookkeeping where Binance/Chainlink prices diverged across the strike.
Rolling-50 cron computes per-strategy / TF / side / plan stats and confidence-calibration buckets. /adaptive.html displays in real-time.
Engine reads weights from adaptive_weights/current (30s cache). Calibration multipliers applied to output confidence. Lifecycle cron auto-demotes losing strategies, promotes proven ones.
Replay engine for parameter exploration. Walk-forward validation guards against overfit.
This page. Live stats from adaptive_metrics. Authenticated system behind Access button.
Faster cycles between observed performance and applied configuration. Less manual intervention required.
Strategies become living entities — tested, mutated, retired, and replaced over time without operator action. Internal lineage tracking.
Selected modules graduate from heuristic to learned models trained on accumulated data. Always validated out-of-sample before promotion.
Beyond Polymarket BTC binary. Decisions broadcast to multiple execution venues with venue-aware routing.
System manages itself end-to-end: detects regime shifts, retrains, rebalances, recovers. Operator becomes auditor, not driver.
Built on published quant + crypto microstructure literature.